Three Concepts: Probability, The Projects

The Final Round: Results

The Contestants

Here are the participating teams with their scientists:

Team   Scientist
Team 3CP-A TiedeUrpo 
Team 3CP-B Alpha2 
Team 3CP-C OmaScientist8 
Team 3CP-D Hehkutus 
Team 3CP-E M15 
Team 3CP-F NeuralScientist 
Team 3CP-G Orko 

The Trial

Each scientist was tested against a set of twenty distributions. Each distribution was tried 51 times independently with different random seeds. Identical seeds were used with all the competitors.

The Results

Here are the results. Listed are the medians of the runs and corresponding standard deviations in the parenthesis.

TiedeUrpo Alpha2 OmaScientist8 Hehkutus M15 NeuralScientist  Orko
Data1 993 (1078.4) 869 (552.3) 1398 (11489.9) 1424 (114215.7) 829 (346281.5) 1000000 (504550.2) 1471 (474852.7)
Data2 308 (332.1) 409 (232.7) 499 (3072.4) 278 (7237.8) 312 (1061.5) 299 (347425.3) 303 (1996.0)
Data3 623 (1595.1) 776 (590.7) 1672 (5013.8) 738 (1085.7) 689 (1049.1) 589 (1234.5) 732 (400493.5)
Data4 214 (131.5) 212 (86.5) 224 (79.4) 208 (271.2) 230 (2598.4) 221 (107.6) 289 (489.3)
Data5 321 (259.3) 306 (208.6) 270 (414.0) 239 (223.9) 267 (1666.0) 299 (220.6) 614 (414804.2)
Data6 475 (416.1) 899 (4657.4) 421 (266.4) 411 (395.0) 537 (11036.4) 474 (231.3) 998 (1760.9)
Data7 2901 (2738.0) 3738 (1071.9) 1000000 (0.0) 1000000 (0.0) 1000000 (0.0) 3478 (194049.6) 1000000 (270889.9)
Data8 536 (679.5) 495 (313.4) 437 (1939.2) 317 (1659.2) 401 (324963.2) 522 (439063.4) 677 (365453.0)
Data9 1622 (1680.9) 1223 (1136.2) 1188 (1247.6) 1309 (138276.4) 1217 (45616.7) 1524 (459600.2) 2227 (383630.1)
Data10 38 (7.4) 46 (9.5) 48 (9.8) 44 (9.9) 46 (15.7) 38 (8.6) 43 (7.9)
Data11 677 (1076.6) 1312 (1207.7) 1226 (1728.9) 720 (956.3) 705 (271200.2) 684 (139871.2) 1209 (6445.1)
Data12 216 (103.6) 231 (110.2) 199 (142.8) 178 (106.8) 190 (1049.6) 233 (130.5) 261 (485.1)
Data13 316 (289.3) 232 (98.1) 397 (103926.5) 318 (24338.5) 444 (400789.6) 344 (400837.6) 370 (13836.1)
Data14 305 (450572.7) 471 (282.5) 583 (4323.1) 319 (3927.2) 334 (325284.1) 398 (439899.0) 2354 (503847.8)
Data15 153 (216.0) 127 (68.1) 139 (5584.6) 111 (793.1) 116 (400920.5) 147 (237588.5) 156 (655.8)
Data16 2469 (11201.5) 1451 (467818.7) 983 (7924.6) 4970 (221855.5) 886 (270837.4) 3147 (498735.2) 2401 (381601.5)
Data17 1518 (2317.6) 1000000 (459809.5) 594 (7658.2) 566 (36778.0) 727 (502337.7) 1000000 (492847.2) 946 (427344.6)
Data18 4458 (29790.1) 1000000 (485498.0) 17196 (143611.1) 2830 (365860.5) 13652 (502490.4) 3801 (486211.4) 11018 (451947.2)
Data19 511 (1937.8) 3414 (485046.1) 716 (1168.0) 557 (15040.8) 625 (139911.2) 649 (300044.5) 1563 (12597.3)
Data20 174 (482577.5) 215 (468519.8) 142 (75.9) 129 (63.0) 142 (73.1) 199 (496980.5) 245 (1744.3)

The Final Round : Hall of Fame

Here's the final ranking. We ordered the scientists per every distribution by the medians shown above and took the average position over the distributions as the final rank. As an interesting sidenote, lines of code and averaged guessing speed are reported for each scientist.

Avr. Ranking    Scientist LoC  Guesses/second
2.5 Hehkutus 153 1200
3.3 M15 114 13500
3.4 TiedeUrpo 91 4300
3.9 NeuralScientist 162 26200
4.3 OmaScientist8 173 25600
4.6 Alpha2 127 12400
5.4 Orko 547 12600

 

 Three Concepts: Probability
2006