Three Concepts: Probability, The Projects

Round 2: Results

The Contestants

Here are the participating teams with their scientists:

Team   Scientist
Team 3CP-A   OurScientist
Team 3CP-B   Alpha2
Team 3CP-C   OmaScientist7
Team 3CP-D   Hehkutus
Team 3CP-E   AfterSci
Team 3CP-F   NeuralScientist
Team 3CP-G   TohtoriSykero

The Trial

Each scientist was tested against a set of ten distributions. Each distribution was tried eleven times independently with different random seeds. Identical seeds were used with all the competitors.

The Results

Here are the results. Listed are the medians of the runs and corresponding standard deviations in the parenthesis. Columns are the distributions having not so evident, yet not arbitrary names. Now, drums please!

  Data1 Data2 Data3 Data4 Data5 Data6 Data7 Data8 Data9 Data10
OurScientist 1886 (1062.2) 375 (188.1) 934 (880.3) 278 (91.3) 295 (379.1) 665 (961.9) 4030 (4829.2) 2257 (1283.1) 2908 (4166.4) 46 (9.7)
Alpha2 1093 (331.6) 405 (189.8) 853 (371.2) 260 (91.6) 460 (260.9) 2194 (3707.2) 4502 (987.4) 584 (143.3) 2096 (1315.2) 46 (7.5)
OmaScientist7 1322 (14394.3) 704 (5403.4) 599 (609.3) 419 (679.5) 279 (2405.6) 14828 (10080.5) 1000000 (0.0) 500 (4396.9) 2147 (1476.8) 72 (16.1)
Hehkutus 2795 (466167.0) 1168 (276.6) 2853 (5506.2) 1203 (258.7) 1042 (273.1) 1841 (480.6) 1000000 (0.0) 1469 (388.7) 4787 (1606.3) 273 (30.4)
AfterSci 7046 (6896.3) 445 (2808.0) 1117 (1092.8) 345 (4424.7) 272 (3601.2) 585 (5844.1) 1000000 (0.0) 633 (7581.4) 15790 (17830.3) 58 (19.1)
NeuralScientist 1000000 (521869.9) 609 (504331.3) 624 (7293.0) 347 (108.0) 319 (295.6) 487 (678.9) 11210 (295621.0) 395 (301275.5) 1477 (403968.0) 36 (4.4)
TohtoriSykero 1000000 (0.0) 1000000 (404126.6) 1000000 (0.0) 1419 (12107.2) 110088 (328894.6) 1000000 (0.0) 1000000 (0.0) 1000000 (404154.2) 1000000 (0.0) 52 (58.7)

Round 2: Hall of Fame

Here's the ranking after round 2. We ordered the scientists per every distribution by the medians shown above and took the average position over the distributions as the final rank. As an interesting sidenote, lines of code and averaged guessing speed are reported for each scientist.

Avr. Ranking    Scientist LoC  Guesses/second
2.6 Alpha2 127 15700
2.7 NeuralScientist   159 27400
2.9 OurScientist 904 8400
3.6 OmaScientist7 170 19100
3.8 AfterSci 118 15400
5.3 Hehkutus 86 4400
6.3 TohtoriSykero 520 21100

 

 Three Concepts: Probability
2006